Next Gen

As is inevitable when any new console releases, the trolls are coming out from beneath their bridges, and the fanboys are brandishing their swords and shields, ready to do quick battle with the unseemly bunch.  It's around this time of a console's cycle that the internet - at least, the sites that I frequent - are becoming incredibly noisy.

So I thought to myself, what is going on with this upcoming (current, with the release of the Wii U, I suppose) generation of consoles?  I've come up with a few worthy discussion points, and I'll try to deliver them from as unbiased a view as I can.


The Last Generation and What it Did to the Industry

With the release of Nintendo's latest console, we're in a position where Nintendo has released their system earlier than its competitors for the first time in over 20 years.  The Super Nintendo came out at a time when Sega was somewhere in between two of its systems, with the Genesis arriving stateside a full two years before Nintendo's sophomore system.  Four years after the SNES graced us with its presence, Sega ushered in the Saturn.

Obviously, any number of things can happen at any given time in history.  We saw how the tsunami affected the video game industry last year in Japan.  Even though Sega had put out one of the most critically acclaimed system with the Dreamcast, it still hemorrhaged money, and ended up dropping out of the console market.  So, it's a little presumptive to put any real faith in the future that you may perceive.

In the scenario that I do foresee, however, Nintendo has got a huge leg-up on the competition.  The Wii was an absolute phenomenon, something that people had never seen before in the video game industry.  While Microsoft's Xbox 360 arrived a full year before Nintendo's fifth console, it didn't really put up big numbers at first.  In a full month, Microsoft just barely broke through the million mark.  One year later, Sony's third system couldn't even crack that amount, faced with a prohibitively high cost of their product (which they were actually taking a loss on).  Meanwhile, only two days later, Nintendo's Wii arrived stateside, the latest of the competitors, but with an innovative spin that completely turned the industry on its head.  Motion gaming was embraced in 2006, and ended up giving Nintendo a big advantage - they sold over two million consoles in less than a month, and opened up a brand new outlet of gamers with their blue ocean strategy.  For the first time since 1972, gaming wasn't just a hardcore or niche hobby.  The era of the casual gamers opened up.

Not even ten months later, the Wii surpassed the Xbox 360 in sales worldwide, while Sony languished in last place (Sony is still slightly behind, though the so-called HD twins have toed the line around each other for the past few years).  Brand name probably accounted for much of what had unfolded last generation.  Nintendo offered the worst quality in graphics and was the latest to market, yet it still managed to develop the largest install base.  It was also much more cost effective for consumers, and for the company itself.  While Microsoft and Sony were taking losses on their consoles, the Wii was bringing in a profit on every sale.

Of course, as the last generation continued on, the market was all but bled dry.  Already saturated by over 200 million collective consoles, there isn't much room for the same old console.  All three companies are releasing reiterations of their current software that relies on cheaper components.  For Microsoft, this is a huge break from their prior stock, as they were hampered down the most from system-crippling malfunctions.  In fact, it was only recently that the HD twins began finally making money back for their companies.

And yet, all three companies were losing money hand over fist over the last year or so.  Each of them posted losses recently, and everyone is crying doom and gloom.  However, nobody sees the bigger picture.  For the last twenty years, this is just what happened.  At the end of a console's life cycle, the current console's sales die off as anticipation for the next cycle begins.  Why would anyone buy a Wii when a Wii U is coming out (this actually did happen, but for several big reasons which I will discuss below).  While Nintendo is releasing a console to offset the age of the Wii, we're stuck waiting until at least some time in 2013 for Microsoft and Sony to release their own consoles.

You see, it wasn't just that Nintendo was slightly behind the times, it was that Microsoft and Sony future-proofed the hell out of their consoles, and at a huge detriment to the industry.  It was great for consumers, who saw one of the biggest jumps in graphical quality since sprites gave way to polygons.  The engines were better, the games looked more polished, and games regularly pushed toward 100 hour long epics.  However, for every Activision and EA that could push their resources into these tremendous games, there were smaller developers who had to struggle to keep up with the huge leap forward.  The cost to produce this generation's games have utterly destroyed many of the companies we grew up with.  And that is not something that we can afford to have happen again.


Nintendo releases its first HD Console

Now dawns the rise of the eighth console generation.  Some people will argue that Nintendo's Wii U isn't a true next generation system, because it only barely improves on the quality of the games that are already out.  Hell, you can see the paltry difference in several of the multiplatform games that have already been released thus far.  Games like Assassin's Creed and Batman are just barely better looking (and in some cases, functioning) than they are on the Box or the PS3, if at all.  But the people who are touting this knowledge left and right have two HUGE strikes against them:

1) No launch multiplatform games have ever been all that stunning.  This is because typically, the game is made on one system (the one that has the highest install base, or ease of development), and ported over to the other systems.  Hell, Bethesda still can't get Skyrim working properly on the PS3 (and in some cases, at all - I'm looking at you Greybeards glitch).

2) Porting to Nintendo's Wii U is like driving on the sidewalk.  Sure, you can do it, but it's not recommended.  In this case, that's because the HD twins have been using CPU's to power their games, while the Wii U's infrastructure utilizes a GPGPU instead for its major computations.  I've seen a lot of people on the internet trying to wittily denounce Nintendo's weaker CPU, but they don't even realize how silly it is to point to it at all.  Bottom line, if a developer focuses on the GPGPU from the ground up, it will provide a better experience than what we're currently seeing on the 360 and PS3.

So, now that the naysayers' biggest argument is out of the way, let's talk about the system itself, and its software. 

Graphically, for now, the Wii U is on par with games that have been coming out for the last few months or so.  Even what seems like small games still look plenty impressive on this system.

Back at E3, Nintendo first showed off its collection of launch titles.  It ended its show with Nintendoland, which had a lot of people scratching their heads.  It was one of the worst E3 presentations in recent Nintendo history.  Why would they end with such a spectacular dud of a game?

I have to admit, I had a sour taste in my mouth about it too.  There was nothing that seemed interesting about the title at all.  It presented itself as a glorified Wii Sports.  Now, I stand on the other end of the spectrum, defiantly defending that game.  While I have  tons of other games at my disposal, that pack-in title has become the center-piece of my collection.  When I have company over, we always end up gravitating toward that game, the figurehead of Nintendo's new system (alongside New Super Mario Bros. U).  It's because it's a different experience than we've had before.  It feels fresh; it feels new.  And that's one thing that they really couldn't demonstrate on the showroom floor at E3.  You're not going to understand it until you partake in it yourself - sort of like trying to demonstrate the 3DS through a PC monitor. 

The Wii U might not be as commercially viable as its predecessor, but I guarantee you, over the next few months, word of mouth (and personal experiences when people go to the houses of early adopters) will sell this system.  The tablet is not an afterthought or a gimmick.  It's a revolutionary new way to experience what has grown stale over the past 20-some odd years.  Assymetric gaming is more entertaining than what you'd expect, and it will be incredibly interesting to see what happens over the next few months, and, indeed, the next five or six years.

So this is what it comes down to: Nintendo's new system, while initially hampered down by long installs, is rather impressive.  I am probably a bigger Nintendo fan than most, yet I still try to maintain a nonbias when I'm first experiencing something.  I enjoyed the Wii for about four years before I felt it wear on me, and I never completed Skyward Sword.  When I initially opened up the Wii U, I wasn't as excited as I wanted to be - yet, when I first sat down and played with my new toy, I was like a kid at Christmas.  The game library might not be extensive yet, and it might not be time for you to buy the system now, but if you enjoyed the Wii, you'll enjoy the Wii U.


The Other Challengers, and the Challenges They Face

As I've said before, anything can happen in the video game industry.  My experiences are just that: mine.  I really dig what Nintendo put out there, and I would insist that anyone who is on the fence at least get out there and try it.  However, that's not to say that my opinion is correct.  You and I may have two different concepts of fun.  You might think that Nintendoland is a piece of crap, and there's no real way for anybody to say who is right or wrong.

What can be clearly stated is that competition is coming.  Nintendo is not the only video game company out there.  Microsoft and Sony want to win this upcoming generation, as is expected - however, there have been plenty of missteps that every company has made over the past several years.  Who is to say whether or not what they want is what they'll get?

The primary thing that is going to have to be taken into account is the leap that these new consoles will make.  As I said before, the 360 and the PS3 jumped ahead so far that it actually damaged the industry.  Developers spent so much time trying to reach the top of the curve in a race that hurt their profits and ended up closing a lot of doors.  A smaller, more natural progression actually works out better for everyone, but of course, that has its detriments as well.  If Microsoft would have put out a console that was fairly evenly matched against the Wii, but lacked the motion controllers, it may have been dead in the water. 

However, I don't think that anyone can wade through another PS3 fiasco.  It may have just been that Sony was out of touch.  Kaz Hirai actually seemed exuberant at that price point (which in all actuality was pretty good for what you were getting), but it was still freaking prohibitive.  Recently, its been announced that Sony's PS4 will support 4K resolution.  If that's the case, I don't see an instance where that system can be affordable.  Just a Sony brand blu-ray player that upscales to 4K is roughly $200.

On top of that, you'd need a 4K television - which is thousands of dollars out of many people's price range.  I understand that Sony likes to think of its systems as filet mignon as compared to Microsoft's london broil and Nintendo's cheeseburger, but we can't eat high end steak for every meal.  It's just not something we do.

Furthermore, if Sony were to push for 4K, we wouldn't see any real change to games any time soon.  Most of the current software that we're seeing doesn't even run in native 1080.  It's simply too much work for developers to spend time on.  It's possible that the system could upscale, but that's a little polish for a lot of money.

There's only one scenario that I can see that allows Sony's gaming hardware division to survive the next generation.  They have to innovate.  They can't afford to make a leap that is as grand as this last generation.  It isn't reasonable for developers, it isn't reasonable for consumers, and it isn't even feasable for Sony, whose credit rating was recently downgraded to junk.  It's a dangerous line for them to tread, but they are going to have to put out a system that is only marginally better than Nintendo, and they are going to have to figure out a way to entice gamers to invest in them.  It might be enough to have a new Playstation available to the masses for a paltry sum, but I still don't see it happening.  Even in the face of that, Sony cannot afford to sell their system for a loss.  There is a huge burden that they must carry going forward, and only in the next year or so will we find out whether or not they can stay afloat.

Microsoft has a few options that Sony does not.  While Sony teeters on the edge of bankruptcy, and is bleeding money from multiple portions of its company, Microsoft is sitting on so much money that Scrooge McDuck would be jealous.

While it would still be foolish for the house that Bill Gates built to make a prohibitively expensive piece of hardware, they could rationally get away with it.  It would hurt the industry though, so I'm hoping that isn't the direction they are taking things.

There's also the Ouya, which may be something worth looking at, but its still too early to really talk about it at this point.  For all we know, the Ouya might be king of the hill a few years from now.

In the foreseeable future, the Wii U will stand against the other two big companies that have been around for at least two generations.  The only way for Wii U to stay comfortable is for third party software and support to become strengthened on the system.  If Sony and Microsoft make enough of a leap, Nintendo is once again going to lose out on multiplatform support.  If the games that are made on the other consoles can be made scalable on the Wii U, it might once again reign supreme.  It all depends on where companies can find the most support.

Pete Hines, marketing executive at Bethesda, puts it very clearly.  "Your install base always starts at zero."  In other words, "we go where there is money to be made."


Ancillary Markets

The home console is not the only place that video game companies are fighting for dominance.  The handheld market has been contested for around two decades, and though Nintendo has always been on top, there have also always been competitors. 

While the Playstation Vita is floundering compared to Nintendo's 3DS (and just barely ekeing out the original DS and it's own predecessor, the PSP), it bears mentioning because it shows what's happening in the market, and what's going on in the minds of those who control Sony's fate.

The other company from Japan has emphasized strength in its consoles since at least 2006, and it has shown across to its handhelds as well.  PSP was stronger than the DS, and Vita is stronger than 3DS.  Yet in spite of this, the Vita still hasn't really made a dent in any of its markets.  There just aren't any games worth owning.  It's holiday centerpiece, Call of Duty: Declassified is receiving abysmal critical reviews.  It's also the more expensive option, sitting at a price point that Nintendo thought it could release the 3DS at last year.  However, noting the poor initial reception of the 3DS, Nintendo dropped the price of their handheld and have since seen a surge in sales.  Meanwhile, Vita is doing very little to attract potential buyers, and Sony seems apt to let it sit there.

I will give commendations where they are due, however.  Sony does seem like it is ushering in a new era of playing wherever you can, whenever you can, with its cross-play, cross-buy promotion.  The idea of playing PS-All Stars on your TV and then taking your Vita on the train and continuing to play on your way to work is a great step forward.  In some ways, Microsoft's Smartglass is slowly making its way in that direction, and of course, there will be some kind of connectivity between the Wii U and 3DS versions of Smash Bros.  Only time will tell which one of the companies best exemplifies the modern age.


Closing Thoughts, Rumors and Theories

One thing that Nintendo has going for it going into this next generation is free online.  You can spend more to get more, with their premium service, ala PS+, but the choice alone puts both Japanese companies miles ahead of Microsoft, which is charging folks a ridiculously hefty fee just to use their network - which we all, myself included, bend over and take without much complaint at all.

There is one final thought, one mere rumor, that could have a tremendous impact on the future of console games.  Earlier in the year, it was heard in whispers and... perhaps even cackles... that the next systems from Microsoft and Sony might restrict used games.  The thought of something like that makes my blood boil.  More and more, digital gaming is becoming prevalent, and it's altered the state of mind of the industry.  When you buy digital, you're technically not purchasing the game.  You're agreeing to lease a copy of the game, with no permanence, and therefore no real ownership.  If they would restrict used game sales, they would effectively invoke the same rules on physical media.  You'd have the disc, but it would only have a leased copy of a game on it.  Imagine buying the latest Call of Duty, and deciding that next year that you want to trade it in to get the latest and greatest.  Only, GameStop won't accept your trade, because nobody can use your tainted disc anymore (there's a sex joke and a anti-corporate/retail rant all in that one sentence).  And you could argue so many things to try and back the idea of restricting used games, but I'll refute every single one of them.  The biggest games don't cost any less when you purchase them digitally.  Publishers won't do anything differently than they are now.  They'll continue trying to gouge their consumers for every dime they can.

Still, there are some bright spots in a potentially bleak future for gaming.  While Microsoft has had its hands deep in the pockets of it's supporters for the past few years, they're at least trying to stir up their innovative juices.  While Sony's Move was nothing but a blatant, messy rip-off of the Wii's motion controller, Microsoft released Kinect, a brand new way to control games, and kicked off the idea of a system-wide achievement system - something that Nintendo still refuses to do.  There's still plenty of room for breakthroughs, but there's still enough space for grandiose, foolish mistakes as well.  Only time will tell what the console giants bring to the table.  Perhaps we'll get some more clarifying news at E3 2013.